The world economy will recover slowly

The world economy's wounds can take months if not a whole year to heal. The big problem of the global economy lies in the evolution of Covid-19 month by month, but not really quarterly. World economic activity outside of China declined dramatically in March and April. When the emancipation order was removed, many of the world's major economies recovered from May and accelerated significantly during the month. 6 and July.

 

This development can be clearly seen in the UK. According to newly released data, the UK economy in July grew by 6.6% compared to June and increased by 8.7% compared to May. in the third quarter, after a slump of 20.4% in the second quarter.

 

However, compared to February - the time before the sweeping Covid-19 translation, the British economy still declined by 11.7%. Services with direct customer contact in the UK also slipped 12.6% compared to February, while industrial output fell 7%.

 

These figures reinforce the belief of many economists that the rebound as before the Covid-19 pandemic is very slow, especially in rich countries where Covid-19 has devastated everything. things from tourism, transportation to entertainment and the job market.

 

In the third quarter, the recovery of the UK economy and the global economy in general will be more modest as the disease continues to adversely affect businesses, workers and governments due to the official vaccine against Covid-19. is still unpredictable.

 

"As long as large economies do not need to blockade, the global economy can maintain recovery momentum, but it is difficult to recover as spectacularly as the reopening of production and business activities. a few months ago, "said Gilles Moëc, chief economist at Axa Insurance Company. However, this expert noted, "difficulties have emerged now".

 

Analysts said that the UK economy could reach its pre-epidemic scale by 2022, because Britain suffered the heaviest losses among major powers in the second quarter of 2020, while the economic recovery of Britain is similar to many other countries, including the US.

According to the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in Atlanta, the world's largest economy is on track to grow 7% in the third quarter, after drifting 9.1% in the second quarter. By the fourth quarter, the US economy could grow by 1.25% and reach the same scale as before in early 2022.

The world economy suffered the second consecutive quarter of recession in the second quarter due to widespread blockade and anti-epidemic social stretch Covid-19 that "knocked out" many industries and services globally. .

 

The economy of the G20 group - a group of powerful countries that account for more than 90% of the world economy - declined 3.4% in the first quarter of 2020, the deepest decline since 1998. But, to the second quarter the decline it was even heavier and “unprecedented in the decades since the end of World War II.

In an internal blog post on September 11, chief economist of the European Central Bank (ECB) Philip Lane had a cautious assessment that Europe's economy recovered slowly and inflation rate was still low. so there is still room to pump more stimulus packages in the coming months.

 

In addition, the survey results of IHS Markit Data Analysis Company showed that by the end of August, the world economic recovery has been maintained for 5 consecutive months. The IHS Markit survey - the business' thermometer 'in 45 countries based on purchasing managers' feedback - hit its highest level in the past seven months.

 

However, with positive numbers, there are signs of instability surrounding the world economy. The recent recurrence of Covid-19 has caused people in Japan, India, Australia, Kazakhstan, Spain and Italy to tighten their consumption belts and become more cautious in fighting the epidemic. Worryingly, these countries contribute up to 15% of global GDP.

 

"It would be a mistake to think that this economic recession will end quickly," said Marcel Fratzscher, president of the German Institute for Economic Research. business bankruptcy and unemployment rate soared ". This means governments and central banks in countries still have much to do.

Meanwhile, James Pomeroy, an economist at HSBC believes that economies are likely to launch new stimulus packages, in addition to a few recently announced packages. "Without those stimulus, the 'scar' of this crisis will deepen and the gap between victory and defeat will widen," James Pomeroy said.

 

Source: baodautu.vn