The global trade simultaneously grew strongly, leading to the recovery of the economy
What is happening shows a contradiction to the forecasts that the Covid-19 pandemic will likely push globalization into a permanent decline.
WHEN THE EXPORT ORDERS INCREASED SIMULTAN EOUSLY
The recovery of trade helped to drag the world economic recovery, and at the same time it also showed a contrary fact compared to the forecasts that the Covid-19 pandemic would put globalization into a state of permanent decline.
According to the Wall Street Journal, when the Covid-19 pandemic affected the global economy and trade this year, international commodity trade had the highest year-on-year decline since the Great Depression. 1929.
Economic experts warn of increased protection, some companies say they will re-adjust supply chains that are vulnerable to unusual shocks.
World trade is still less active than in the pre-pandemic period. However, it can be seen that in the past time, trade has recovered significantly quickly. World trade has regained about half of the decline caused by the Covid-19 pandemic, according to calculations by the Kiel-Germany Institute.
Survey by IHS Markit showed that the number of export orders in 14/38 countries around the world increased. At the time of June 2020, this number is only 4. The number of orders as well as trade index of many countries is recovering and will soon grow again.
Households are spending heavily on imported goods. Sometimes they spend on government subsidies, while spending on local services such as dining at restaurants and going to the movies falls, and consumption falls all at once, affecting many other areas.
In China, where the first factories were reopened after a period of blockade caused by the Covid019 pandemic, merchandise exports in August 2020 increased significantly compared to the previous year.
At China's Ningbo - Chu San port, one of the largest ports in the world, the volume of goods transported has increased beyond the level of 2009. The volume of goods has increased gradually since July 2020, according to data. by QuantCube Technology.
In the first 10 days of this month, South Korea's exports were only 0.2% lower than the same period last year.
TRADE FOLLOWS ECONOMIC RESTORED
The freight volume at some ports of the US, Asia and Europe has also returned to normal, according to calculations by the global shipping statistics company. For some important freight routes, the volume of freight increased above the pre-crisis threshold Covid-19, which set a record high this month, in terms of container freight rates. at ports from Shanghai to California.
However, not everywhere trade has an immediate rebound, trade is still facing many challenges, including the possibility that the Covid-19 pandemic will break out again in the fall now on.
However, trade in which country develops, that country's economy also grows strongly, including some examples such as China, South Korea or Germany. In addition, it is also important to consider the influence of a number of other policies, such as the success of Covid-19 pandemic control.
China is likely to become the only major economy to grow this year. In the case of Korea and Germany, Barclays is concerned that these two economies will be able to grow minus 1.5% and 5.3% this year, the decline is still lower than that of other countries. service-oriented economy such as Italy or Spain. The economy of Italy and Spain is forecasted to have negative growth of 9.3% and 10.7% in 2020.
Clearly, trade has a much bigger role in the global economic recovery than economists think, if this trend continues.
Asia-Pacific chief economist, Mr. Shaun Roache, commented: “Trade is an area that is still growing steadily. For example, even if you're not on vacation, you can still buy yourself a laptop ”.
Source : nhipsongdoanhnghiep.cuocsongantoan.vn